Federal forces in Ethiopia have just recaptured Mekelle, pushing the Tigray People's Liberation Front out of the regional capital and tearing a massive hole through the fragile 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. If you think this military capture spells total victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, you are missing the entire history of this war.
Capturing a city isn't the same as winning a war. We've seen this movie before.
In late 2020, federal troops seized Mekelle with lightning speed, only to get bogged down in a brutal, years-long insurgency that ultimately drove them back out. Now, as pro-government forces and allied militias patrol empty streets and shuttered shops, the TPLF leadership has already pulled its administration into the shadows, promising to launch guerrilla operations from elsewhere.
The Fragile Collapse of the Pretoria Accord
The latest round of fighting didn't happen in a vacuum. The peace deal brokered in late 2022 was always hanging by a thread. Tensions spiked sharply when the TPLF ousted a government-appointed administration earlier this year, setting the stage for a major military offensive launched on September 23.
When federal forces and Tigray Peace Force militias entered Mekelle, they secured the city center and the local airport. But civilian life didn't snap back to normal. Residents report closed storefronts, empty streets, and an eerie silence. Local residents spent nights organizing their own neighborhood security because formal policing structures evaporated in the chaos of the retreat.
Why the Rebel Retreat is Part of a Wider Playbook
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael made it clear that retreating from the capital doesn't mean surrender. He stated plainly that the group operates under a strategy to strike enemies wherever they choose.
Insurgent warfare relies on mobility, not holding fixed geographic points. By abandoning Mekelle, the TPLF avoids getting trapped in a street-by-street siege while preserving its fighting cadres. They did it before, and they're doing it now.
Control of Mekelle restores a major political center to Addis Ababa, but it leaves the wider regional landscape dangerously volatile. Fighting hasn't stopped; it's simply shifted geography, spilling into surrounding areas and straining relations with neighboring Eritrea.
Regional Shockwaves and Border Anxieties
The escalation is sending panic waves far beyond Ethiopia's borders. Eritrea, sharing a long, hostile border with Tigray, views landlocked Ethiopia's moves with deep suspicion. Analysts note that Asmara has quietly backed regional rebels to keep the threat away from its own territory, fearing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ambitions to secure direct access to the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, diplomatic friction is boiling over elsewhere in East Africa. A recent mini-summit in Alamein brought together leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan to address regional instability. Egyptian officials are watching the chaos closely, especially as long-running disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remain deadlocked and bilateral diplomatic expulsions mount. Cairo insists it has nothing to do with Ethiopia's internal crisis, but regional leaders know that a destabilized Horn of Africa rarely stays contained within national borders.
What Happens Next on the Ground
For ordinary citizens caught in the crossfire, the immediate reality is grim. Transportation links remain severed, civilian flights have been grounded, and humanitarian access is severely restricted. Regaining physical control of an airport or a highway is just a logistics milestone; resuming safe civilian operations requires actual stability, which remains scarce.
Don't mistake the flag-raising in Mekelle for a lasting settlement. Addis Ababa has secured a symbolic prize, but the underlying ethnic and political grievances that fueled a civil war claiming hundreds of thousands of lives are still burning hot. Until political leaders address those root causes instead of trading cities back and forth, peace will remain entirely out of reach.
